Hoffenheim
Model pick
67%
Fair odds 1.49Bookmakers 59%
Schalke 04
14%
Fair odds 7.18Bookmakers 19%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Hoffenheim: 67% here, 59% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hoffenheim | Draw | Schalke 04 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Elo model | 60% | 24% | 15% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Best price on offer | 1.61 | 4.50 | 5.25 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim are rated 104 points above Schalke 04 (1511 to 1406), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hoffenheim
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Hoffenheim's chance of winning and takes the same from Schalke 04's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hoffenheim
Expected goals 2.3 to 1.0. Hoffenheim score 1.5 a match against an average side (6th in Bundesliga); Schalke 04 concede 1.6 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Hoffenheim
Hoffenheim DLWWW, gained 33 rating points; Schalke 04 LDLLD, lost 16 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Schalke 04
Hoffenheim will have had 3 days' rest, Schalke 04 8. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Schalke 04
Bookmakers rate Schalke 04 higher than the model does: Hoffenheim 59% against the model's 67%, Schalke 04 19% against 14%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HoffenheimSchalke 04Hoffenheim
7/10 over 2.5
16 scored
16 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Schalke 04
4/10 over 2.5
5 scored
12 conceded
05/09
05/17
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 64%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 2-2
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hoffenheim | Draw | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 45%2.24 | 4%26.46 | 1%— |
| Level | 19%5.21 | 11%9.48 | 5%19.19 |
| Schalke 04 | 3%29.24 | 4%24.45 | 8%12.42 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Hoffenheim wins0Schalke 04 wins- W Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 2-0
- W Schalke 04 vs Hoffenheim 0-3
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hoffenheim's side.