Aldershot
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.33
Scunthorpe
32%
Fair odds 3.10
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Aldershot | Draw | Scunthorpe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 25% | 32% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Aldershot and Scunthorpe are rated almost level (1010 and 1019).
-
Home advantage Favours Aldershot
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Aldershot's chance of winning and takes the same from Scunthorpe's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Aldershot
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.4. Aldershot score 0.5 a match against an average side (19th in National League); Scunthorpe concede 3.5 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Aldershot WLLLL, lost 31 rating points; Scunthorpe LLLLL, lost 43 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Aldershot won 2, drew 1 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AldershotScunthorpeAldershot
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/24
10/28
10/31
Scunthorpe
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
20 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/16
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/24
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Aldershot | Draw | Scunthorpe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aldershot | 27%3.66 | 5%18.98 | 2%47.17 |
| Level | 13%7.42 | 13%7.43 | 11%9.25 |
| Scunthorpe | 3%39.06 | 5%19.23 | 20%5.06 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Aldershot wins1Scunthorpe wins- W Aldershot vs Scunthorpe 3-1
- L Scunthorpe vs Aldershot 2-1
- W Aldershot vs Scunthorpe 2-1
- D Scunthorpe vs Aldershot 3-3
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Aldershot's side.