Port Vale
Model pick
75%
Fair odds 1.34
Scunthorpe
9%
Fair odds 11.30
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Port Vale | Draw | Scunthorpe | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Elo model | 75% | 18% | 6% |
Team news
No absences reported
No injury or suspension report from the last three days was found. Older reports (Oct 7 and Oct 26) mention Ryan Croasdale's foot injury and a double injury blow, but the details are unconfirmed for this match, so I have not listed them.
No absences reported
No recent injury or suspension report found for Scunthorpe. The only injury item found was about 227 days old.
Allowing for this news: Port Vale 76%, draw 16%, Scunthorpe 8% (xG 2.47 – 0.71). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: onevalefan.co.uk, onevalefan.co.uk, portvalethevaliant.substack.com, scunthorpe-united.co.uk
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Port Vale
Port Vale are rated 228 points above Scunthorpe (1248 to 1019), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Port Vale
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Port Vale's chance of winning and takes the same from Scunthorpe's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Port Vale
Expected goals 2.4 to 0.7. Port Vale score 0.7 a match against an average side (7th in League Two); Scunthorpe concede 3.5 (20th best defence in National League).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Port Vale
Port Vale WLDWW, gained 8 rating points; Scunthorpe LLLLL, lost 43 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Port ValeScunthorpePort Vale
2/10 over 2.5
9 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Scunthorpe
6/10 over 2.5
11 scored
20 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/16
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/24
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Port Vale | Draw | Scunthorpe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Port Vale | 57%1.75 | 4%25.32 | 1%— |
| Level | 16%6.20 | 10%10.45 | 4%24.39 |
| Scunthorpe | 2%55.87 | 2%43.29 | 4%23.98 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Port Vale wins0Scunthorpe wins- W Port Vale vs Scunthorpe 1-0
- W Scunthorpe vs Port Vale 0-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Port Vale's side.