Charlton
29%
Fair odds 3.43Bookmakers 27%
Sheffield United
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.28Bookmakers 46%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Charlton | Draw | Sheffield United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Elo model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Best price on offer | 3.70 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
Team news
- Nathaniel Chalobah Out
- Rob Apter Out
- Collins Sichenje Out
Manager Nathan Jones says Chalobah's diagnosis is pending; Matt Godden is listed as available and competing for an attacking spot.
- Patrick Bamford Doubtful
- Joe Rothwell Out
- Ryan One Out
Kalvin Phillips has been passed fit after a groin tweak, and Chris Wilder says Bamford will be assessed before the trip south.
Allowing for this news: Charlton 30%, draw 28%, Sheffield United 43% (xG 1.14 – 1.42). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: yorkshirepost.co.uk, sportsmole.co.uk, the72.co.uk, fotmob.com
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sheffield United
Sheffield United are rated 98 points above Charlton (1483 to 1385), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Charlton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Charlton's chance of winning and takes the same from Sheffield United's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sheffield United
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.5. Charlton score 0.8 a match against an average side (23rd in Championship); Sheffield United concede 1.4 (16th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Sheffield United
Charlton LLLLD, lost 33 rating points; Sheffield United WWDWL, gained 10 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Sheffield United
Bookmakers rate Sheffield United higher than the model does: Charlton 27% against the model's 29%, Sheffield United 46% against 44%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CharltonSheffield UnitedCharlton
5/10 over 2.5
5 scored
19 conceded
09/05
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Sheffield United
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
13 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/30
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 51%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Charlton | Draw | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton | 17%5.86 | 5%19.65 | 2%41.15 |
| Level | 11%9.13 | 16%6.23 | 16%6.35 |
| Sheffield United | 2%60.61 | 5%20.75 | 26%3.82 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Charlton wins0Sheffield United wins- W Charlton vs Sheffield United 1-0
- W Sheffield United vs Charlton 0-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Charlton's side.