Barnsley
34%
Fair odds 2.96
Sheffield Weds
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.46
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Barnsley | Draw | Sheffield Weds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 34% | 26% | 41% |
| Elo model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sheffield Weds
Sheffield Weds are rated 47 points above Barnsley (1336 to 1288), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Barnsley
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Barnsley's chance of winning and takes the same from Sheffield Weds's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sheffield Weds
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.6. Barnsley score 0.9 a match against an average side (11th in League One); Sheffield Weds concede 1.5 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Barnsley DLLLL, lost 18 rating points; Sheffield Weds DDLLW, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
BarnsleySheffield WedsBarnsley
8/10 over 2.5
12 scored
21 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Sheffield Weds
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
10 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Barnsley | Draw | Sheffield Weds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley | 19%5.16 | 5%19.23 | 3%37.04 |
| Level | 13%7.91 | 14%7.00 | 15%6.74 |
| Sheffield Weds | 2%43.48 | 5%19.57 | 24%4.25 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Barnsley wins0Sheffield Weds wins- W Barnsley vs Sheffield Weds 4-2
- W Sheffield Weds vs Barnsley 0-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Barnsley's side.