Oldham
23%
Fair odds 4.43
Sheffield Weds
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.92
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Oldham | Draw | Sheffield Weds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| Elo model | 25% | 27% | 48% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sheffield Weds
Sheffield Weds are rated 145 points above Oldham (1336 to 1190), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Oldham
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Oldham's chance of winning and takes the same from Sheffield Weds's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sheffield Weds
Expected goals 1.0 to 1.7. Oldham score 0.6 a match against an average side (17th in League Two); Sheffield Weds concede 1.5 (8th best defence in League One).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Oldham
Oldham WLDLW, barely moved; Sheffield Weds DDLLW, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
OldhamSheffield WedsOldham
4/10 over 2.5
8 scored
16 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
11/03
Sheffield Weds
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
10 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Oldham | Draw | Sheffield Weds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oldham | 11%8.70 | 4%25.45 | 2%48.78 |
| Level | 10%10.20 | 15%6.62 | 16%6.17 |
| Sheffield Weds | 2%56.50 | 5%18.45 | 34%2.92 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.