Stevenage
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.40
Sheffield Weds
29%
Fair odds 3.40
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Stevenage | Draw | Sheffield Weds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Stevenage
Stevenage are rated 29 points above Sheffield Weds (1365 to 1336), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Stevenage
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Stevenage's chance of winning and takes the same from Sheffield Weds's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Stevenage
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.1. Stevenage score 0.8 a match against an average side (18th in League One); Sheffield Weds concede 1.5 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Stevenage
Stevenage DLWLW, barely moved; Sheffield Weds DDLLW, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
StevenageSheffield WedsStevenage
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/10
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Sheffield Weds
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
10 conceded
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Stevenage | Draw | Sheffield Weds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stevenage | 23%4.39 | 4%23.75 | 1%75.76 |
| Level | 17%5.84 | 18%5.52 | 11%8.90 |
| Sheffield Weds | 2%40.98 | 5%18.73 | 17%5.74 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.