Qingdao Hainiu
23%
Fair odds 4.40Bookmakers 18%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Model pick
54%
Fair odds 1.85Bookmakers 61%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Qingdao Hainiu | Draw | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| Best price on offer | 5.50 | 4.75 | 1.57 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng are rated 68 points above Qingdao Hainiu (1314 to 1246), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Qingdao Hainiu
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Qingdao Hainiu's chance of winning and takes the same from Shenzhen Xinpengcheng's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.9. Qingdao Hainiu score 0.6 a match against an average side (18th in Chinese Super League); Shenzhen Xinpengcheng concede 1.9 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Qingdao Hainiu LLLLL, lost 54 rating points; Shenzhen Xinpengcheng WLDDL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
Bookmakers rate Shenzhen Xinpengcheng higher than the model does: Qingdao Hainiu 18% against the model's 23%, Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 61% against 54%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Qingdao Hainiu won 2, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Qingdao HainiuShenzhen XinpengchengQingdao Hainiu
6/10 over 2.5
4 scored
26 conceded
07/25
08/02
08/08
08/14
08/23
08/29
09/05
10/09
10/17
10/24
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
18 conceded
07/26
08/02
08/07
08/15
08/22
08/28
09/05
10/09
10/17
10/24
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Qingdao Hainiu | Draw | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qingdao Hainiu | 18%5.44 | 9%10.98 | 8%12.45 |
| Level | 4%22.99 | 11%8.81 | 23%4.27 |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 0%— | 2%55.25 | 23%4.31 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Qingdao Hainiu wins3Shenzhen Xinpengcheng wins- L Shenzhen Xinpengcheng vs Qingdao Hainiu 3-2
- L Shenzhen Xinpengcheng vs Qingdao Hainiu 4-0
- L Qingdao Hainiu vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 0-1
- W Qingdao Hainiu vs Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 1-0
- W Shenzhen Xinpengcheng vs Qingdao Hainiu 1-3
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Qingdao Hainiu's side.