Kashima Antlers
Model pick
77%
Fair odds 1.30
Shimizu S-Pulse
8%
Fair odds 12.50
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kashima Antlers | Draw | Shimizu S-Pulse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| Elo model | 68% | 22% | 10% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Kashima Antlers
Kashima Antlers are rated 165 points above Shimizu S-Pulse (1449 to 1284), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kashima Antlers
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Kashima Antlers's chance of winning and takes the same from Shimizu S-Pulse's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Kashima Antlers
Expected goals 2.6 to 0.7. Kashima Antlers score 1.1 a match against an average side (6th in J1 League); Shimizu S-Pulse concede 2.4 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Kashima Antlers
Kashima Antlers WLDWW, gained 8 rating points; Shimizu S-Pulse LLLDW, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Kashima Antlers
Kashima Antlers won 4, drew 1 and lost 0 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Kashima AntlersShimizu S-PulseKashima Antlers
6/10 over 2.5
20 scored
16 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/11
09/19
10/09
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Shimizu S-Pulse
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
20 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kashima Antlers | Draw | Shimizu S-Pulse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima Antlers | 35%2.86 | 0%— | 0%— |
| Level | 31%3.19 | 7%14.39 | 1%— |
| Shimizu S-Pulse | 11%9.10 | 7%14.31 | 7%13.55 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
4Kashima Antlers wins0Shimizu S-Pulse wins- D Shimizu S-Pulse vs Kashima Antlers 1-1
- W Kashima Antlers vs Shimizu S-Pulse 1-0
- W Shimizu S-Pulse vs Kashima Antlers 0-1
- W Kashima Antlers vs Shimizu S-Pulse 2-1
- W Shimizu S-Pulse vs Kashima Antlers 0-4
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kashima Antlers's side.