Okayama
Model pick
51%
Fair odds 1.96
Shimizu S-Pulse
23%
Fair odds 4.35
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Okayama | Draw | Shimizu S-Pulse | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Okayama
Okayama are rated 23 points above Shimizu S-Pulse (1307 to 1284), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Okayama
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Okayama's chance of winning and takes the same from Shimizu S-Pulse's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Okayama
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.0. Okayama score 0.7 a match against an average side (16th in J1 League); Shimizu S-Pulse concede 2.4 (20th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Okayama LLWLL, lost 27 rating points; Shimizu S-Pulse LLLDW, lost 18 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
OkayamaShimizu S-PulseOkayama
9/10 over 2.5
13 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/21
10/25
10/31
Shimizu S-Pulse
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
20 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/21
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Okayama | Draw | Shimizu S-Pulse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Okayama | 31%3.18 | 3%29.33 | 1%— |
| Level | 17%5.86 | 16%6.36 | 6%15.82 |
| Shimizu S-Pulse | 3%33.56 | 6%16.72 | 16%6.10 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Okayama wins0Shimizu S-Pulse wins- W Shimizu S-Pulse vs Okayama 1-2
- D Okayama vs Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Okayama's side.