Chesterfield
Model pick
56%
Fair odds 1.79
Shrewsbury
20%
Fair odds 4.97
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Chesterfield | Draw | Shrewsbury | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Elo model | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Chesterfield
Chesterfield are rated 84 points above Shrewsbury (1242 to 1158), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Chesterfield
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Chesterfield's chance of winning and takes the same from Shrewsbury's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Chesterfield
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.0. Chesterfield score 0.8 a match against an average side (3rd in League Two); Shrewsbury concede 2.1 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Shrewsbury
Chesterfield LWDLD, lost 14 rating points; Shrewsbury LDWWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
ChesterfieldShrewsburyChesterfield
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
17 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/30
Shrewsbury
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
14 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Chesterfield | Draw | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 33%2.99 | 4%23.98 | 1%83.33 |
| Level | 20%5.09 | 14%7.06 | 8%12.72 |
| Shrewsbury | 3%31.55 | 5%20.75 | 12%8.67 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Chesterfield wins1Shrewsbury wins- L Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury 2-3
- W Shrewsbury vs Chesterfield 0-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Chesterfield's side.