Horsens
Model pick
59%
Fair odds 1.70
Silkeborg
20%
Fair odds 5.01
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Horsens | Draw | Silkeborg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Silkeborg
Silkeborg are rated 11 points above Horsens (1314 to 1303), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Horsens
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Horsens's chance of winning and takes the same from Silkeborg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Horsens
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.2. Horsens score 0.9 a match against an average side (7th in Danish Superliga); Silkeborg concede 2.4 (13th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Horsens
Horsens LWDDD, gained 13 rating points; Silkeborg LDLDW, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Horsens won 2, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HorsensSilkeborgHorsens
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
16 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/28
09/06
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/16
10/25
11/01
Silkeborg
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
20 conceded
08/16
08/24
08/30
09/05
09/13
09/18
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 3-0
- 1-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Horsens | Draw | Silkeborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Horsens | 31%3.18 | 3%31.85 | 1%— |
| Level | 22%4.53 | 11%9.17 | 6%16.23 |
| Silkeborg | 6%17.09 | 6%15.90 | 13%7.56 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Horsens wins2Silkeborg wins- D Silkeborg vs Horsens 3-3
- L Horsens vs Silkeborg 0-1
- W Silkeborg vs Horsens 1-2
- W Horsens vs Silkeborg 3-2
- L Silkeborg vs Horsens 2-1
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Horsens's side.