Sion
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.41Bookmakers 47%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Vaduz | Draw | Sion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Elo model | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 29% | 23% | 47% |
| Best price on offer | 3.40 | 4.20 | 1.98 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sion
Sion are rated 90 points above Vaduz (1432 to 1342), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Vaduz
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Vaduz's chance of winning and takes the same from Sion's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sion
Expected goals 1.5 to 1.7. Vaduz score 1.0 a match against an average side (8th in Swiss Super League); Sion concede 1.5 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Vaduz DLWLL, lost 8 rating points; Sion DWLDW, lost 7 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Sion
Bookmakers rate Sion higher than the model does: Vaduz 29% against the model's 34%, Sion 47% against 41%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
VaduzSion
08/09
08/23
08/30
09/02
09/05
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/24
10/31
Sion
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
14 conceded
08/30
09/03
09/06
09/12
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 1-0
- 1-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Vaduz | Draw | Sion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vaduz | 24%4.24 | 7%13.68 | 5%21.65 |
| Level | 9%10.56 | 13%7.82 | 17%5.93 |
| Sion | 1%73.53 | 4%28.33 | 20%4.89 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Sion wins- L Sion vs Vaduz 3-2
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Vaduz's side.