Kalmar
22%
Fair odds 4.62Bookmakers 32%
Sirius
Model pick
55%
Fair odds 1.82Bookmakers 41%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Kalmar: 22% here, 32% with bookmakers; Sirius: 55% here, 41% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kalmar | Draw | Sirius | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Elo model | 22% | 26% | 52% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 32% | 27% | 41% |
| Best price on offer | 2.95 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sirius
Sirius are rated 171 points above Kalmar (1442 to 1271), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kalmar
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Kalmar's chance of winning and takes the same from Sirius's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sirius
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.9. Kalmar score 0.6 a match against an average side (17th in Allsvenskan); Sirius concede 1.8 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Kalmar DLLWL, lost 11 rating points; Sirius LLDWW, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Kalmar
Bookmakers rate Kalmar higher than the model does: Kalmar 32% against the model's 22%, Sirius 41% against 55%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Sirius
Kalmar won 1, drew 3 and lost 4 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
KalmarSiriusKalmar
3/10 over 2.5
2 scored
14 conceded
08/23
08/29
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/19
10/24
10/29
11/02
Sirius
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/15
08/21
08/31
09/05
09/14
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/29
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 2-1
- 0-3
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kalmar | Draw | Sirius |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalmar | 18%5.55 | 9%10.72 | 8%12.25 |
| Level | 4%26.74 | 11%8.73 | 24%4.18 |
| Sirius | 0%— | 2%63.29 | 24%4.26 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Kalmar wins4Sirius wins- L Sirius vs Kalmar 3-2
- L Sirius vs Kalmar 3-1
- L Kalmar vs Sirius 1-2
- L Sirius vs Kalmar 3-0
- D Kalmar vs Sirius 2-2
- D Sirius vs Kalmar 0-0
- D Kalmar vs Sirius 1-1
- W Kalmar vs Sirius 3-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kalmar's side.