Nancy
Model pick
58%
Fair odds 1.74Bookmakers 57%
Sochaux
18%
Fair odds 5.45Bookmakers 18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Nancy | Draw | Sochaux | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 25% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Best price on offer | 1.63 | 3.90 | 5.40 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Nancy
Nancy are rated 13 points above Sochaux (1349 to 1336), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Nancy
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Nancy's chance of winning and takes the same from Sochaux's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Nancy
Expected goals 1.8 to 0.9. Nancy score 1.0 a match against an average side (8th in Ligue 2); Sochaux concede 1.7 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Nancy
Nancy WWWWW, gained 52 rating points; Sochaux LLLDD, lost 26 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Nancy 57%, Sochaux 18%).
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
NancySochauxNancy
4/10 over 2.5
16 scored
9 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/28
09/07
09/11
09/18
10/09
10/16
10/23
11/02
Sochaux
2/10 over 2.5
8 scored
11 conceded
08/14
08/21
08/28
09/04
09/12
09/18
10/09
10/17
10/23
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 49%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Nancy | Draw | Sochaux |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy | 31%3.28 | 3%34.60 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.32 | 14%7.03 | 6%16.81 |
| Sochaux | 4%22.57 | 6%16.61 | 12%8.20 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Nancy wins1Sochaux wins- L Sochaux vs Nancy 1-0
- D Nancy vs Sochaux 0-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Nancy's side.