Crystal Palace
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.37
Sociedad
33%
Fair odds 3.07
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Crystal Palace | Draw | Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 42% | 25% | 33% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Crystal Palace and Sociedad are rated almost level (1524 and 1517).
-
Home advantage Favours Crystal Palace
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Crystal Palace's chance of winning and takes the same from Sociedad's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Crystal Palace
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.4. Crystal Palace score 1.3 a match against an average side (18th in Premier League); Sociedad concede 1.2 (6th best defence in La Liga).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Sociedad
Crystal Palace DLLDL, lost 30 rating points; Sociedad DLWWW, gained 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Crystal PalaceSociedadCrystal Palace
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
19 conceded
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Sociedad
8/10 over 2.5
23 scored
16 conceded
09/13
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Crystal Palace | Draw | Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 24%4.12 | 5%19.84 | 2%44.05 |
| Level | 16%6.43 | 14%7.18 | 12%8.16 |
| Sociedad | 3%34.13 | 5%19.08 | 18%5.41 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.