Racing Club
15%
Fair odds 6.63
Sociedad
Model pick
65%
Fair odds 1.54
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Racing Club | Draw | Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| Elo model | 23% | 27% | 50% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sociedad
Sociedad are rated 160 points above Racing Club (1517 to 1358), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Racing Club
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Racing Club's chance of winning and takes the same from Sociedad's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sociedad
Expected goals 1.0 to 2.2. Racing Club score 0.7 a match against an average side (15th in Liga Profesional); Sociedad concede 1.2 (6th best defence in La Liga).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Sociedad
Racing Club WLDLW, lost 8 rating points; Sociedad DLWWW, gained 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Racing ClubSociedadRacing Club
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
15 conceded
08/24
08/31
09/07
09/14
09/19
10/05
10/11
10/18
10/25
10/31
Sociedad
8/10 over 2.5
23 scored
16 conceded
09/13
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 0-3
- 2-2
- 2-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Racing Club | Draw | Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing Club | 13%7.55 | 9%10.57 | 12%8.10 |
| Level | 2%48.31 | 9%11.52 | 30%3.35 |
| Sociedad | 0%— | 1%— | 23%4.27 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.