Sabadell
26%
Fair odds 3.92
Sociedad
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.02
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sabadell | Draw | Sociedad | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Elo model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sociedad
Sociedad are rated 154 points above Sabadell (1517 to 1363), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sabadell
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Sabadell's chance of winning and takes the same from Sociedad's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sociedad
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.7. Sabadell score 1.0 a match against an average side (12th in La Liga 2); Sociedad concede 1.2 (6th best defence in La Liga).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Sociedad
Sabadell LDLWD, lost 10 rating points; Sociedad DLWWW, gained 25 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Sabadell
Sociedad will have had 4 days' rest, Sabadell 9. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SabadellSociedadSabadell
4/10 over 2.5
12 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/04
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
Sociedad
8/10 over 2.5
23 scored
16 conceded
09/13
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sabadell | Draw | Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabadell | 15%6.56 | 5%18.21 | 3%29.41 |
| Level | 9%10.74 | 14%7.03 | 18%5.46 |
| Sociedad | 1%68.49 | 4%23.20 | 28%3.54 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.