Sabadell
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.91Bookmakers 55%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sabadell | Draw | Sociedad B | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Elo model | 55% | 26% | 20% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Best price on offer | 1.70 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Sabadell
Sabadell are rated 62 points above Sociedad B (1363 to 1300), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sabadell
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sabadell's chance of winning and takes the same from Sociedad B's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sabadell
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.1. Sabadell score 1.0 a match against an average side (12th in La Liga 2); Sociedad B concede 1.7 (20th best defence).
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Last 5 matches Neutral
Sabadell LDLWD, lost 10 rating points; Sociedad B WLLLL, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
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Bookmakers' view Favours Sabadell
Bookmakers rate Sabadell higher than the model does: Sabadell 55% against the model's 52%, Sociedad B 19% against 23%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SabadellSociedad BSabadell
4/10 over 2.5
12 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/07
09/13
09/20
10/04
10/10
10/18
10/25
10/31
08/31
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/04
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 47%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 3-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sabadell | Draw | Sociedad B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sabadell | 30%3.31 | 4%24.81 | 1%84.03 |
| Level | 19%5.18 | 14%6.97 | 8%12.15 |
| Sociedad B | 3%28.90 | 5%18.42 | 14%7.26 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.