Hartlepool
Model pick
52%
Fair odds 1.92
Solihull
24%
Fair odds 4.19
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hartlepool | Draw | Solihull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Hartlepool
Hartlepool are rated 27 points above Solihull (1019 to 992), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hartlepool
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Hartlepool's chance of winning and takes the same from Solihull's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Hartlepool
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.2. Hartlepool score 0.5 a match against an average side (22nd in National League); Solihull concede 4.0 (24th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Hartlepool LLWWL, barely moved; Solihull WWLLL, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Hartlepool won 3, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
HartlepoolSolihullHartlepool
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
23 conceded
09/16
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/27
10/31
Solihull
8/10 over 2.5
13 scored
23 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/18
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/24
10/27
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hartlepool | Draw | Solihull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hartlepool | 27%3.76 | 3%29.67 | 1%97.09 |
| Level | 21%4.73 | 13%7.49 | 8%12.90 |
| Solihull | 5%20.88 | 6%15.46 | 16%6.45 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Hartlepool wins2Solihull wins- W Solihull vs Hartlepool 3-4
- W Hartlepool vs Solihull 2-0
- D Hartlepool vs Solihull 1-1
- W Solihull vs Hartlepool 3-4
- L Solihull vs Hartlepool 2-1
- L Hartlepool vs Solihull 0-2
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Hartlepool's side.