Sutton
Model pick
57%
Fair odds 1.76
Solihull
20%
Fair odds 4.96
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sutton | Draw | Solihull | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Elo model | 52% | 26% | 22% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Sutton
Sutton are rated 45 points above Solihull (1036 to 992), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sutton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sutton's chance of winning and takes the same from Solihull's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sutton
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.1. Sutton score 0.5 a match against an average side (18th in National League); Solihull concede 4.0 (24th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Sutton
Sutton WWLLD, gained 21 rating points; Solihull WWLLL, lost 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Sutton won 1, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
SuttonSolihullSutton
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
15 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/19
09/26
10/09
10/24
10/28
Solihull
8/10 over 2.5
13 scored
23 conceded
09/12
09/15
09/18
09/26
09/29
10/03
10/24
10/27
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sutton | Draw | Solihull |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sutton | 28%3.55 | 3%38.61 | 1%— |
| Level | 23%4.30 | 12%8.16 | 6%17.95 |
| Solihull | 6%16.61 | 7%14.10 | 14%6.95 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Sutton wins1Solihull wins- L Solihull vs Sutton 4-1
- D Sutton vs Solihull 0-0
- D Solihull vs Sutton 1-1
- W Sutton vs Solihull 1-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sutton's side.