Midtjylland
Model pick
73%
Fair odds 1.37Bookmakers 70%
Sonderjyske
11%
Fair odds 9.01Bookmakers 13%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Midtjylland | Draw | Sonderjyske | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| Elo model | 73% | 19% | 7% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 70% | 17% | 13% |
| Best price on offer | 1.33 | 5.75 | 8.00 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Midtjylland
Midtjylland are rated 211 points above Sonderjyske (1506 to 1294), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Midtjylland
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Midtjylland's chance of winning and takes the same from Sonderjyske's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Midtjylland
Expected goals 2.7 to 1.0. Midtjylland score 1.1 a match against an average side (2nd in Danish Superliga); Sonderjyske concede 2.4 (14th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Midtjylland LWWLW, lost 12 rating points; Sonderjyske LLWLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Sonderjyske
Midtjylland will have had 3 days' rest, Sonderjyske 6. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Sonderjyske
Bookmakers rate Sonderjyske higher than the model does: Midtjylland 70% against the model's 73%, Sonderjyske 13% against 11%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Midtjylland
Midtjylland won 6, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 9 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MidtjyllandSonderjyskeMidtjylland
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
18 conceded
09/07
09/14
09/19
10/11
10/15
10/19
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Sonderjyske
8/10 over 2.5
15 scored
27 conceded
08/17
08/23
08/31
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/25
11/02
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 4-1
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Midtjylland | Draw | Sonderjyske |
|---|---|---|---|
| Midtjylland | 34%2.95 | 1%72.46 | 0%— |
| Level | 29%3.41 | 7%13.76 | 3%39.22 |
| Sonderjyske | 10%9.63 | 6%15.48 | 9%11.74 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
6Midtjylland wins2Sonderjyske wins- W Sonderjyske vs Midtjylland 2-3
- W Sonderjyske vs Midtjylland 1-2
- D Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske 2-2
- L Sonderjyske vs Midtjylland 2-1
- W Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske 6-2
- L Sonderjyske vs Midtjylland 3-2
- W Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske 3-2
- W Midtjylland vs Sonderjyske 3-2
- W Sonderjyske vs Midtjylland 0-2
9 meetings in the data. Results shown from Midtjylland's side.