Sheffield United
33%
Fair odds 3.05
Southampton
Model pick
42%
Fair odds 2.39
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sheffield United | Draw | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Elo model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Southampton
Southampton are rated 88 points above Sheffield United (1571 to 1483), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sheffield United
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Sheffield United's chance of winning and takes the same from Southampton's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Southampton
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.6. Sheffield United score 1.1 a match against an average side (11th in Championship); Southampton concede 1.2 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Sheffield United WWDWL, gained 10 rating points; Southampton DWWDW, gained 17 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Sheffield UnitedSouthamptonSheffield United
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
13 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/30
11/03
Southampton
5/10 over 2.5
19 scored
9 conceded
09/05
09/08
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/14
10/17
10/24
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sheffield United | Draw | Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield United | 21%4.88 | 6%16.61 | 3%29.50 |
| Level | 11%9.12 | 14%7.18 | 16%6.25 |
| Southampton | 2%56.18 | 4%22.73 | 23%4.34 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Sheffield United wins2Southampton wins- L Southampton vs Sheffield United 1-0
- L Sheffield United vs Southampton 1-2
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Sheffield United's side.