Forest Green
33%
Fair odds 2.99
Southend
Model pick
41%
Fair odds 2.41
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Forest Green | Draw | Southend | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 33% | 25% | 41% |
| Elo model | 36% | 28% | 36% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Southend
Southend are rated 63 points above Forest Green (1150 to 1087), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Forest Green
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Forest Green's chance of winning and takes the same from Southend's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Southend
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.6. Forest Green score 0.6 a match against an average side (10th in National League); Southend concede 2.5 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Forest Green DWLDD, lost 14 rating points; Southend LDDWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Forest Green won 1, drew 2 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Forest GreenSouthendForest Green
6/10 over 2.5
18 scored
16 conceded
08/31
09/12
09/15
09/26
09/29
10/10
10/28
10/31
Southend
9/10 over 2.5
26 scored
19 conceded
09/12
09/19
09/26
09/30
10/03
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 2-1
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 1-0
- 0-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Forest Green | Draw | Southend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green | 17%5.77 | 4%23.70 | 2%49.26 |
| Level | 14%7.40 | 14%7.33 | 13%7.75 |
| Southend | 3%32.26 | 6%15.92 | 27%3.70 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Forest Green wins1Southend wins- L Southend vs Forest Green 2-0
- W Forest Green vs Southend 2-1
- D Forest Green vs Southend 2-2
- D Southend vs Forest Green 2-2
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Forest Green's side.