Rio Ave
25%
Fair odds 3.98Bookmakers 16%
Sp Braga
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.05Bookmakers 61%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Rio Ave: 25% here, 16% with bookmakers; Sp Braga: 49% here, 61% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Rio Ave | Draw | Sp Braga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 25% | 26% | 49% |
| Elo model | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| Best price on offer | 6.00 | 4.25 | 1.55 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sp Braga
Sp Braga are rated 150 points above Rio Ave (1564 to 1413), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Rio Ave
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Rio Ave's chance of winning and takes the same from Sp Braga's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sp Braga
Expected goals 1.1 to 1.6. Rio Ave score 1.0 a match against an average side (18th in Primeira Liga); Sp Braga concede 1.1 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Sp Braga
Rio Ave LLWLD, lost 19 rating points; Sp Braga DWLWL, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Rest Favours Rio Ave
Sp Braga will have had 3 days' rest, Rio Ave 7. The model doesn't adjust for this.
Not in the model -
Bookmakers' view Favours Sp Braga
Bookmakers rate Sp Braga higher than the model does: Rio Ave 16% against the model's 25%, Sp Braga 61% against 49%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Sp Braga
Rio Ave won 1, drew 2 and lost 5 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Rio AveSp BragaRio Ave
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
23 conceded
08/09
08/15
08/22
08/28
09/06
09/14
09/19
10/11
10/25
11/01
Sp Braga
5/10 over 2.5
9 scored
11 conceded
09/10
09/14
09/20
10/09
10/15
10/19
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 53%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 0 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Rio Ave | Draw | Sp Braga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | 14%7.04 | 5%21.14 | 2%40.65 |
| Level | 10%10.13 | 16%6.45 | 17%5.99 |
| Sp Braga | 2%63.69 | 5%20.53 | 30%3.32 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Rio Ave wins5Sp Braga wins- L Sp Braga vs Rio Ave 3-0
- D Rio Ave vs Sp Braga 2-2
- W Rio Ave vs Sp Braga 2-1
- L Sp Braga vs Rio Ave 4-0
- D Rio Ave vs Sp Braga 0-0
- L Sp Braga vs Rio Ave 2-1
- L Sp Braga vs Rio Ave 2-0
- L Rio Ave vs Sp Braga 2-3
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Rio Ave's side.