Sociedad
Model pick
67%
Fair odds 1.48
Sp Gijon
13%
Fair odds 7.48
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Sociedad | Draw | Sp Gijon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 67% | 19% | 13% |
| Elo model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Sociedad
Sociedad are rated 133 points above Sp Gijon (1517 to 1384), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Sociedad
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Sociedad's chance of winning and takes the same from Sp Gijon's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sociedad
Expected goals 2.3 to 0.9. Sociedad score 1.5 a match against an average side (4th in La Liga); Sp Gijon concede 1.5 (9th best defence in La Liga 2).
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Last 5 matches Neutral
Sociedad DLWWW, gained 25 rating points; Sp Gijon WLWWW, gained 17 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
SociedadSp GijonSociedad
8/10 over 2.5
23 scored
16 conceded
09/13
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Sp Gijon
4/10 over 2.5
12 scored
13 conceded
08/28
09/05
09/13
09/19
09/27
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Sociedad | Draw | Sp Gijon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sociedad | 39%2.55 | 3%34.48 | 1%— |
| Level | 24%4.21 | 11%9.36 | 5%21.14 |
| Sp Gijon | 5%20.62 | 5%20.53 | 8%12.06 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.