Den Haag
Model pick
48%
Fair odds 2.08Bookmakers 38%
Sparta Rotterdam
28%
Fair odds 3.52Bookmakers 36%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Den Haag: 48% here, 38% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Den Haag | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Elo model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Best price on offer | 2.55 | 3.70 | 2.70 |
Team news
- Luka Reischl Out
- Donat Barany Out
Sports Mole's preview says Reischl is not expected to play; Fotmob lists Barany's thigh injury with a return expected mid-November, and its date is unclear. Cameron Peupion (knee) is listed as expected back for this match, so he is not an absence.
- Shunsuke Mito Out
- Max de Ligt Doubtful
- Jens Toornstra Doubtful
Mito and De Ligt reports are 9-13 days old; a preview published 1 day ago says no current Sparta injuries or suspensions, which conflicts with them. Mitchell van Bergen is back from injury and available.
Allowing for this news: Den Haag 49%, draw 24%, Sparta Rotterdam 28% (xG 1.86 – 1.36). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search, which found little recent news, so treat this with care. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, fotmob.com, opstellingvandaag.nl, news.bet365.nl
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Neutral
Den Haag and Sparta Rotterdam are rated almost level (1453 and 1448).
-
Home advantage Favours Den Haag
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Den Haag's chance of winning and takes the same from Sparta Rotterdam's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Den Haag
Expected goals 1.9 to 1.4. Den Haag score 1.2 a match against an average side (14th in Eredivisie); Sparta Rotterdam concede 1.7 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Den Haag LLWDD, barely moved; Sparta Rotterdam WLWDL, lost 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Sparta Rotterdam
Bookmakers rate Sparta Rotterdam higher than the model does: Den Haag 38% against the model's 48%, Sparta Rotterdam 36% against 28%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Den HaagSparta RotterdamDen Haag
7/10 over 2.5
13 scored
22 conceded
08/16
08/23
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
11/01
Sparta Rotterdam
10/10 over 2.5
20 scored
25 conceded
08/14
08/22
08/29
09/04
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 61%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Den Haag | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|---|
| Den Haag | 28%3.62 | 5%22.08 | 2%54.05 |
| Level | 17%5.87 | 12%8.05 | 10%10.30 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 4%26.04 | 6%17.45 | 17%5.80 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.