Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Clyde | Draw | Spartans | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 44% | 25% | 30% |
| Best price on offer | 2.05 | 3.75 | 3.10 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Clyde
Clyde are rated 24 points above Spartans (1121 to 1097), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Clyde
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Clyde's chance of winning and takes the same from Spartans's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Clyde
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.3. Clyde score 0.6 a match against an average side (1st in Scottish League Two); Spartans concede 2.6 (2nd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Clyde
Clyde DWWLD, lost 6 rating points; Spartans WLWLL, lost 29 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Clyde 44%, Spartans 30%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Spartans
Clyde won 1, drew 6 and lost 6 of the last 13 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ClydeSpartans
08/15
08/22
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/31
08/15
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 60%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Clyde | Draw | Spartans |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clyde | 28%3.52 | 5%18.55 | 2%44.84 |
| Level | 15%6.47 | 14%7.17 | 11%8.81 |
| Spartans | 3%38.31 | 5%21.10 | 16%6.31 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
- D Spartans vs Clyde 3-3
- L Spartans vs Clyde 2-1
- W Clyde vs Spartans 2-1
- D Spartans vs Clyde 1-1
- L Clyde vs Spartans 1-3
- L Spartans vs Clyde 2-0
- L Clyde vs Spartans 0-2
- L Spartans vs Clyde 3-2
- D Clyde vs Spartans 1-1
- D Clyde vs Spartans 0-0
13 meetings in the data. Results shown from Clyde's side.