San Diego FC
Model pick
65%
Fair odds 1.53Bookmakers 64%
Sporting Kansas City
17%
Fair odds 5.93Bookmakers 18%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| San Diego FC | Draw | Sporting Kansas City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 65% | 18% | 17% |
| Elo model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 64% | 19% | 18% |
| Best price on offer | 1.48 | 5.25 | 5.75 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours San Diego FC
San Diego FC are rated 134 points above Sporting Kansas City (1347 to 1212), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours San Diego FC
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to San Diego FC's chance of winning and takes the same from Sporting Kansas City's.
-
Attack against defence Favours San Diego FC
Expected goals 2.6 to 1.3. San Diego FC score 0.9 a match against an average side (16th in MLS); Sporting Kansas City concede 3.0 (30th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours San Diego FC
San Diego FC WLDDD, barely moved; Sporting Kansas City DLLLL, lost 23 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (San Diego FC 64%, Sporting Kansas City 18%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours San Diego FC
San Diego FC won 2, drew 1 and lost 0 of the last 3 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
San Diego FCSporting Kansas CitySan Diego FC
9/10 over 2.5
17 scored
28 conceded
09/10
09/14
09/21
09/27
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/29
10/31
Sporting Kansas City
8/10 over 2.5
16 scored
23 conceded
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/02
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/29
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 4-1
- 3-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | San Diego FC | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego FC | 32%3.13 | 3%38.31 | 1%— |
| Level | 25%3.94 | 8%11.76 | 5%19.05 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 8%12.03 | 6%16.42 | 11%9.12 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2San Diego FC wins0Sporting Kansas City wins- W Sporting Kansas City vs San Diego FC 0-1
- W Sporting Kansas City vs San Diego FC 0-2
- D San Diego FC vs Sporting Kansas City 0-0
3 meetings in the data. Results shown from San Diego FC's side.