Reims
Model pick
39%
Fair odds 2.55
St Etienne
34%
Fair odds 2.92
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Reims | Draw | St Etienne | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Elo model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Reims
Reims are rated 10 points above St Etienne (1457 to 1447), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Reims
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Reims's chance of winning and takes the same from St Etienne's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.3. Reims score 1.1 a match against an average side (2nd in Ligue 2); St Etienne concede 1.3 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Reims WDWDD, gained 6 rating points; St Etienne LWWWD, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Reims won 3, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 6 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ReimsSt EtienneReims
6/10 over 2.5
22 scored
12 conceded
08/14
08/24
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/18
10/10
10/16
10/26
11/02
St Etienne
7/10 over 2.5
20 scored
11 conceded
08/14
08/22
08/31
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Reims | Draw | St Etienne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reims | 24%4.24 | 5%19.31 | 2%46.73 |
| Level | 14%7.19 | 15%6.57 | 13%7.95 |
| St Etienne | 2%43.48 | 5%19.72 | 20%5.00 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Reims wins3St Etienne wins- W Reims vs St Etienne 1-0
- L St Etienne vs Reims 3-2
- L Reims vs St Etienne 0-2
- L St Etienne vs Reims 3-1
- W St Etienne vs Reims 1-2
- W Reims vs St Etienne 2-0
6 meetings in the data. Results shown from Reims's side.