Falkirk
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.88
St Johnstone
22%
Fair odds 4.48
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Falkirk | Draw | St Johnstone | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 24% | 22% |
| Elo model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Falkirk
Falkirk are rated 26 points above St Johnstone (1478 to 1453), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Falkirk
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Falkirk's chance of winning and takes the same from St Johnstone's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Falkirk
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. Falkirk score 1.1 a match against an average side (7th in Scottish Premiership); St Johnstone concede 1.6 (11th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Falkirk
Falkirk WWWWL, gained 34 rating points; St Johnstone DDLDW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
FalkirkSt JohnstoneFalkirk
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/05
09/15
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
11/01
St Johnstone
5/10 over 2.5
11 scored
15 conceded
08/29
09/02
09/06
09/09
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Falkirk | Draw | St Johnstone |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falkirk | 33%3.00 | 5%22.12 | 1%73.53 |
| Level | 18%5.70 | 14%7.10 | 8%12.08 |
| St Johnstone | 3%34.36 | 5%20.41 | 13%7.62 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Falkirk wins0St Johnstone wins- D St Johnstone vs Falkirk 1-1
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Falkirk's side.