Celtic
Model pick
73%
Fair odds 1.37
St Mirren
10%
Fair odds 9.75
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Celtic | Draw | St Mirren | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| Elo model | 72% | 20% | 8% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Celtic
Celtic are rated 202 points above St Mirren (1607 to 1405), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Celtic
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 6 points to Celtic's chance of winning and takes the same from St Mirren's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Celtic
Expected goals 2.5 to 0.9. Celtic score 1.7 a match against an average side (1st in Scottish Premiership); St Mirren concede 1.5 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Celtic WLDWL, lost 20 rating points; St Mirren LDWLL, lost 12 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Celtic
Celtic won 15, drew 3 and lost 1 of the last 19 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CelticSt MirrenCeltic
7/10 over 2.5
19 scored
18 conceded
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
10/28
11/01
11/05
St Mirren
6/10 over 2.5
9 scored
20 conceded
08/30
09/02
09/05
09/09
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/28
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 2-1
- 3-0
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 1-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Celtic | Draw | St Mirren |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 49%2.06 | 3%31.65 | 1%— |
| Level | 21%4.68 | 9%10.92 | 4%24.39 |
| St Mirren | 4%26.95 | 4%28.33 | 6%17.57 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
15Celtic wins1St Mirren wins- W St Mirren vs Celtic 1-2
- W Celtic vs St Mirren 1-0
- W St Mirren vs Celtic 0-1
- W Celtic vs St Mirren 1-0
- D Celtic vs St Mirren 1-1
- W St Mirren vs Celtic 2-5
- W Celtic vs St Mirren 3-0
- W St Mirren vs Celtic 0-3
- W Celtic vs St Mirren 3-2
- W Celtic vs St Mirren 3-0
19 meetings in the data. Results shown from Celtic's side.