Magdeburg
Model pick
44%
Fair odds 2.28Bookmakers 40%
St Pauli
31%
Fair odds 3.22Bookmakers 34%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Magdeburg | Draw | St Pauli | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Best price on offer | 2.40 | 3.70 | 2.80 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours St Pauli
St Pauli are rated 16 points above Magdeburg (1391 to 1374), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Magdeburg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Magdeburg's chance of winning and takes the same from St Pauli's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Magdeburg
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.4. Magdeburg score 1.2 a match against an average side (5th in 2. Bundesliga); St Pauli concede 1.4 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Magdeburg
Magdeburg DWLWD, gained 16 rating points; St Pauli LDDWD, lost 5 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours St Pauli
Bookmakers rate St Pauli higher than the model does: Magdeburg 40% against the model's 44%, St Pauli 34% against 31%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Magdeburg won 1, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MagdeburgSt PauliMagdeburg
6/10 over 2.5
21 scored
13 conceded
08/08
08/15
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/18
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/31
St Pauli
4/10 over 2.5
12 scored
12 conceded
08/09
08/14
08/30
09/04
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/23
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 58%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 2-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Magdeburg | Draw | St Pauli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg | 24%4.12 | 4%23.98 | 2%64.52 |
| Level | 16%6.08 | 14%7.33 | 10%10.17 |
| St Pauli | 4%27.40 | 6%15.95 | 20%4.96 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Magdeburg wins2St Pauli wins- W Magdeburg vs St Pauli 1-0
- D St Pauli vs Magdeburg 0-0
- L Magdeburg vs St Pauli 1-2
- L St Pauli vs Magdeburg 3-0
4 meetings in the data. Results shown from Magdeburg's side.