Charleroi
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.90
St Truiden
23%
Fair odds 4.38
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Charleroi | Draw | St Truiden | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Elo model | 51% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Charleroi
Charleroi are rated 34 points above St Truiden (1546 to 1512), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Charleroi
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Charleroi's chance of winning and takes the same from St Truiden's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Charleroi
Expected goals 1.8 to 1.1. Charleroi score 1.4 a match against an average side (5th in Belgian Pro League); St Truiden concede 1.3 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Charleroi
Charleroi WLWWW, gained 11 rating points; St Truiden DLLWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Charleroi
Charleroi won 5, drew 3 and lost 2 of the last 10 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
CharleroiSt TruidenCharleroi
6/10 over 2.5
21 scored
12 conceded
08/09
08/16
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/13
09/19
10/11
10/24
11/01
St Truiden
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
17 conceded
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 1-2
- 3-1
- 0-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Charleroi | Draw | St Truiden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | 32%3.10 | 5%22.17 | 1%69.93 |
| Level | 18%5.56 | 14%7.16 | 9%11.64 |
| St Truiden | 3%32.57 | 5%20.12 | 13%7.54 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Charleroi wins2St Truiden wins- W St Truiden vs Charleroi 0-2
- D Charleroi vs St Truiden 1-1
- W Charleroi vs St Truiden 2-1
- W St Truiden vs Charleroi 1-4
- L St Truiden vs Charleroi 1-0
- D Charleroi vs St Truiden 1-1
- W Charleroi vs St Truiden 1-0
- L St Truiden vs Charleroi 2-1
- W St Truiden vs Charleroi 0-1
- D Charleroi vs St Truiden 0-0
10 meetings in the data. Results shown from Charleroi's side.