Hajduk Split
28%
Fair odds 3.58
St Truiden
Model pick
46%
Fair odds 2.17
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Hajduk Split | Draw | St Truiden | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 28% | 26% | 46% |
| Elo model | 25% | 27% | 48% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours St Truiden
St Truiden are rated 149 points above Hajduk Split (1512 to 1363), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Hajduk Split
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Hajduk Split's chance of winning and takes the same from St Truiden's.
-
Attack against defence Favours St Truiden
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.6. Hajduk Split score 0.9 a match against an average side; St Truiden concede 1.3 (7th best defence in Belgian Pro League).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Hajduk Split LWW, barely moved; St Truiden DLLWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Hajduk SplitSt TruidenHajduk Split
1/3 over 2.5
3 scored
2 conceded
10/15
10/22
11/05
St Truiden
5/10 over 2.5
14 scored
17 conceded
09/02
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Hajduk Split | Draw | St Truiden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hajduk Split | 21%4.79 | 8%12.69 | 5%20.66 |
| Level | 7%14.56 | 14%6.91 | 19%5.14 |
| St Truiden | 1%— | 3%36.76 | 22%4.50 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.