Kortrijk
9%
Fair odds 10.85
St. Gilloise
Model pick
73%
Fair odds 1.36
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Kortrijk | Draw | St. Gilloise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 9% | 17% | 73% |
| Elo model | 9% | 21% | 70% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours St. Gilloise
St. Gilloise are rated 310 points above Kortrijk (1689 to 1380), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Kortrijk
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 5 points to Kortrijk's chance of winning and takes the same from St. Gilloise's.
-
Attack against defence Favours St. Gilloise
Expected goals 0.7 to 2.3. Kortrijk score 0.9 a match against an average side (19th in Belgian Pro League); St. Gilloise concede 0.8 (1st best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours St. Gilloise
Kortrijk LDLWL, lost 13 rating points; St. Gilloise WWWWD, gained 9 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours St. Gilloise
Kortrijk won 0, drew 0 and lost 8 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
KortrijkSt. GilloiseKortrijk
6/10 over 2.5
4 scored
22 conceded
08/07
08/15
08/29
09/03
09/06
09/13
09/20
10/10
10/31
11/04
St. Gilloise
7/10 over 2.5
28 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/17
09/20
10/11
10/15
10/22
10/25
10/31
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 0-3
- 1-2
- 1-1
- 1-3
- 0-4
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 3 |
| 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Kortrijk | Draw | St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kortrijk | 6%15.70 | 5%21.23 | 5%19.08 |
| Level | 3%34.84 | 10%9.91 | 27%3.73 |
| St. Gilloise | 0%— | 2%53.48 | 42%2.39 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Kortrijk wins8St. Gilloise wins- L Kortrijk vs St. Gilloise 1-2
- L St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk 3-0
- L Kortrijk vs St. Gilloise 1-3
- L St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk 3-0
- L Kortrijk vs St. Gilloise 2-4
- L St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk 2-1
- L Kortrijk vs St. Gilloise 2-3
- L St. Gilloise vs Kortrijk 2-0
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Kortrijk's side.