Houston Dynamo
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.60Bookmakers 38%
St. Louis City
35%
Fair odds 2.87Bookmakers 36%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Houston Dynamo | Draw | St. Louis City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| Best price on offer | 2.55 | 3.60 | 2.66 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours St. Louis City
St. Louis City are rated 17 points above Houston Dynamo (1368 to 1351), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Houston Dynamo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Houston Dynamo's chance of winning and takes the same from St. Louis City's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.3. Houston Dynamo score 0.8 a match against an average side (25th in MLS); St. Louis City concede 2.0 (12th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo LWDDD, barely moved; St. Louis City LLLLD, lost 43 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Neutral
Bookmakers' average price agrees with the model to within a few points (Houston Dynamo 38%, St. Louis City 36%).
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Houston Dynamo won 2, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 7 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
Houston DynamoSt. Louis CityHouston Dynamo
6/10 over 2.5
13 scored
16 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
09/27
10/11
10/15
10/18
10/25
10/29
11/02
St. Louis City
8/10 over 2.5
22 scored
17 conceded
09/10
09/13
09/20
10/12
10/15
10/17
10/25
10/29
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Houston Dynamo | Draw | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 27%3.75 | 6%15.92 | 3%38.61 |
| Level | 11%9.23 | 15%6.55 | 13%7.69 |
| St. Louis City | 1%68.97 | 4%24.33 | 20%5.05 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Houston Dynamo wins3St. Louis City wins- L St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo 2-1
- W St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo 2-3
- W Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City 1-0
- L St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo 3-0
- D Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City 0-0
- D Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City 1-1
- L St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo 3-0
7 meetings in the data. Results shown from Houston Dynamo's side.