Lommel SK
Model pick
49%
Fair odds 2.04
Standard
25%
Fair odds 3.96
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Lommel SK | Draw | Standard | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Elo model | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Lommel SK
Lommel SK are rated 28 points above Standard (1521 to 1493), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Lommel SK
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Lommel SK's chance of winning and takes the same from Standard's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Lommel SK
Expected goals 1.6 to 1.1. Lommel SK score 1.3 a match against an average side (9th in Belgian Pro League); Standard concede 1.3 (8th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Lommel SK
Lommel SK WDWDL, gained 12 rating points; Standard DLLLL, lost 32 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Lommel SKStandardLommel SK
4/10 over 2.5
13 scored
11 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/23
08/29
09/04
09/12
09/19
10/09
10/24
11/01
Standard
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
16 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/21
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/18
10/11
10/25
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Lommel SK | Draw | Standard |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lommel SK | 29%3.49 | 4%22.42 | 1%69.44 |
| Level | 18%5.59 | 15%6.64 | 10%10.50 |
| Standard | 3%33.67 | 5%19.23 | 15%6.77 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.