Rosenborg
Model pick
92%
Fair odds 1.09Bookmakers 76%
Start
2%
Fair odds 43.10Bookmakers 9%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Rosenborg: 92% here, 76% with bookmakers; A draw: 6% here, 15% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Rosenborg | Draw | Start | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| Elo model | 70% | 21% | 9% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| Best price on offer | 1.24 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Rosenborg
Rosenborg are rated 182 points above Start (1462 to 1280), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Rosenborg
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Rosenborg's chance of winning and takes the same from Start's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Rosenborg
Expected goals 3.9 to 0.6. Rosenborg score 1.6 a match against an average side (2nd in Eliteserien); Start concede 2.6 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Rosenborg
Rosenborg WWWDW, gained 44 rating points; Start LWLLL, lost 30 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Start
Bookmakers rate Start higher than the model does: Rosenborg 76% against the model's 92%, Start 9% against 2%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
RosenborgStartRosenborg
8/10 over 2.5
28 scored
10 conceded
08/09
08/14
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/31
Start
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
21 conceded
08/01
08/08
08/30
09/04
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 3-0
- 4-0
- 5-0
- 2-0
- 3-1
- 4-1
- 6-0
- 5-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 10 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Rosenborg | Draw | Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rosenborg | 35%2.82 | 0%— | 0%— |
| Level | 37%2.69 | 2%54.05 | 0%— |
| Start | 19%5.31 | 4%24.94 | 3%39.84 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Rosenborg wins0Start wins- W Start vs Rosenborg 0-3
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Rosenborg's side.