Valerenga
Model pick
77%
Fair odds 1.29
Start
9%
Fair odds 11.20
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Valerenga | Draw | Start | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Elo model | 57% | 25% | 18% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Valerenga
Valerenga are rated 80 points above Start (1359 to 1280), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Valerenga
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Valerenga's chance of winning and takes the same from Start's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Valerenga
Expected goals 3.0 to 1.0. Valerenga score 1.2 a match against an average side (5th in Eliteserien); Start concede 2.6 (17th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Valerenga
Valerenga WWWLD, gained 38 rating points; Start LWLLL, lost 30 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
ValerengaStartValerenga
7/10 over 2.5
21 scored
19 conceded
08/08
08/16
08/30
09/06
09/12
09/20
10/12
10/18
10/24
11/01
Start
5/10 over 2.5
10 scored
21 conceded
08/01
08/08
08/30
09/04
09/13
09/20
10/11
10/18
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 3-0
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 4-0
- 4-1
- 1-1
- 1-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Valerenga | Draw | Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valerenga | 34%2.91 | 1%98.04 | 0%— |
| Level | 31%3.19 | 6%16.78 | 2%53.76 |
| Start | 12%8.24 | 6%16.31 | 7%14.08 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Valerenga wins1Start wins- L Start vs Valerenga 2-0
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Valerenga's side.