Arbroath
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.67
Stenhousemuir
33%
Fair odds 3.03
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Arbroath | Draw | Stenhousemuir | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 38% | 30% | 33% |
| Elo model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Stenhousemuir
Stenhousemuir are rated 15 points above Arbroath (1284 to 1269), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Arbroath
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Arbroath's chance of winning and takes the same from Stenhousemuir's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.1. Arbroath score 0.6 a match against an average side (10th in Scottish Championship); Stenhousemuir concede 1.9 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Arbroath LLLLL, lost 45 rating points; Stenhousemuir LLLDL, lost 36 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Neutral
Arbroath won 2, drew 0 and lost 3 of the last 5 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ArbroathStenhousemuirArbroath
5/10 over 2.5
5 scored
19 conceded
08/29
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/25
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/31
Stenhousemuir
3/10 over 2.5
8 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/04
09/15
09/19
09/25
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Arbroath | Draw | Stenhousemuir |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arbroath | 25%4.02 | 6%16.53 | 2%44.64 |
| Level | 12%8.33 | 19%5.36 | 14%7.00 |
| Stenhousemuir | 1%84.75 | 4%26.95 | 17%5.88 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
2Arbroath wins3Stenhousemuir wins- L Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath 1-0
- W Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir 4-0
- L Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath 2-0
- W Arbroath vs Stenhousemuir 1-0
- L Stenhousemuir vs Arbroath 2-1
5 meetings in the data. Results shown from Arbroath's side.