Morton
Model pick
43%
Fair odds 2.32Bookmakers 35%
Stenhousemuir
29%
Fair odds 3.44Bookmakers 37%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Morton | Draw | Stenhousemuir | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Elo model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Best price on offer | 2.65 | 3.30 | 2.52 |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Neutral
Morton and Stenhousemuir are rated almost level (1276 and 1284).
-
Home advantage Favours Morton
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Morton's chance of winning and takes the same from Stenhousemuir's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Morton
Expected goals 1.4 to 1.1. Morton score 0.7 a match against an average side (7th in Scottish Championship); Stenhousemuir concede 1.9 (7th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Morton
Morton WWWLL, gained 18 rating points; Stenhousemuir LLLDL, lost 36 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Stenhousemuir
Bookmakers rate Stenhousemuir higher than the model does: Morton 35% against the model's 43%, Stenhousemuir 37% against 29%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
MortonStenhousemuirMorton
6/10 over 2.5
12 scored
17 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/11
09/19
09/25
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/31
Stenhousemuir
3/10 over 2.5
8 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/04
09/15
09/19
09/25
10/10
10/17
10/24
10/27
10/30
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 46%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Morton | Draw | Stenhousemuir |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 29%3.50 | 6%16.61 | 2%45.25 |
| Level | 13%7.41 | 17%5.89 | 13%7.92 |
| Stenhousemuir | 2%66.67 | 4%26.11 | 15%6.77 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Morton wins1Stenhousemuir wins- L Stenhousemuir vs Morton 2-0
1 meetings in the data. Results shown from Morton's side.