Notts County
Model pick
36%
Fair odds 2.77
Stevenage
34%
Fair odds 2.94
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Notts County | Draw | Stevenage | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 36% | 30% | 34% |
| Elo model | 34% | 28% | 38% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Stevenage
Stevenage are rated 78 points above Notts County (1365 to 1287), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Notts County
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Notts County's chance of winning and takes the same from Stevenage's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.1. Notts County score 0.8 a match against an average side (17th in League One); Stevenage concede 1.4 (3rd best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Notts County
Notts County WDWLL, gained 22 rating points; Stevenage DLWLW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Notts CountyStevenageNotts County
2/10 over 2.5
10 scored
11 conceded
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Stevenage
5/10 over 2.5
15 scored
10 conceded
08/29
09/01
09/05
09/10
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 0-0
- 0-1
- 2-1
- 1-2
- 2-0
- 0-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 11 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Notts County | Draw | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Notts County | 18%5.44 | 4%26.53 | 1%84.75 |
| Level | 16%6.25 | 19%5.26 | 12%8.38 |
| Stevenage | 2%41.84 | 6%17.04 | 22%4.65 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.