Stranraer
Model pick
64%
Fair odds 1.57Bookmakers 53%
Stirling
16%
Fair odds 6.31Bookmakers 23%
The model and the bookmakers disagree. Stranraer: 64% here, 53% with bookmakers. Bookmakers are usually sharper, so read a gap as a reason to look closer, not a tip.
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Stranraer | Draw | Stirling | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 64% | 20% | 16% |
| Elo model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| Best price on offer | 1.75 | 3.90 | 4.10 |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Stranraer
Stranraer are rated 111 points above Stirling (1125 to 1014), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Stranraer
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Stranraer's chance of winning and takes the same from Stirling's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Stranraer
Expected goals 2.2 to 1.0. Stranraer score 0.6 a match against an average side (2nd in Scottish League Two); Stirling concede 3.5 (10th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Stranraer DWWDW, gained 45 rating points; Stirling WDWWD, gained 35 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Stirling
Bookmakers rate Stirling higher than the model does: Stranraer 53% against the model's 64%, Stirling 23% against 16%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Favours Stirling
Stranraer won 3, drew 7 and lost 7 of the last 17 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
StranraerStirlingStranraer
5/10 over 2.5
24 scored
5 conceded
08/22
08/29
09/05
09/12
10/03
10/10
Stirling
6/10 over 2.5
15 scored
23 conceded
08/15
08/22
09/12
10/03
10/10
10/17
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 60%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 1-0
- 3-1
- 3-0
- 2-2
- 0-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Stranraer | Draw | Stirling |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stranraer | 42%2.35 | 4%23.87 | 1%85.47 |
| Level | 18%5.41 | 11%8.86 | 6%16.47 |
| Stirling | 3%31.45 | 4%24.04 | 9%11.15 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Stranraer wins7Stirling wins- D Stirling vs Stranraer 2-2
- D Stranraer vs Stirling 1-1
- D Stirling vs Stranraer 1-1
- W Stranraer vs Stirling 3-2
- L Stirling vs Stranraer 1-0
- L Stirling vs Stranraer 3-1
- W Stranraer vs Stirling 3-0
- D Stirling vs Stranraer 1-1
- L Stranraer vs Stirling 0-2
- D Stranraer vs Stirling 1-1
17 meetings in the data. Results shown from Stranraer's side.