Cambridge
35%
Fair odds 2.85
Stockport
Model pick
38%
Fair odds 2.65
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Cambridge | Draw | Stockport | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 35% | 27% | 38% |
| Elo model | 30% | 28% | 43% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Stockport
Stockport are rated 110 points above Cambridge (1422 to 1312), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Cambridge
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Cambridge's chance of winning and takes the same from Stockport's.
-
Attack against defence Neutral
Expected goals 1.3 to 1.4. Cambridge score 0.8 a match against an average side (14th in League One); Stockport concede 1.5 (6th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Stockport
Cambridge LDLDW, lost 9 rating points; Stockport WLDWW, gained 6 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
CambridgeStockportCambridge
6/10 over 2.5
14 scored
15 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Stockport
4/10 over 2.5
17 scored
8 conceded
09/05
09/12
09/19
09/26
10/10
10/17
10/20
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 1-2
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-0
- 0-2
- 2-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Cambridge | Draw | Stockport |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge | 19%5.30 | 4%22.27 | 2%52.63 |
| Level | 14%7.01 | 16%6.28 | 13%7.46 |
| Stockport | 2%40.00 | 6%17.76 | 23%4.34 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Cambridge wins1Stockport wins- W Cambridge vs Stockport 2-0
- L Stockport vs Cambridge 2-0
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Cambridge's side.