Toulouse
Model pick
47%
Fair odds 2.15Bookmakers 43%
Strasbourg
28%
Fair odds 3.55Bookmakers 31%
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Toulouse | Draw | Strasbourg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Elo model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market (bookmakers' average, margin removed) | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Best price on offer | 2.25 | 3.75 | 3.10 |
Team news
- Aron Dønnum Out
- Rafik Messali Out
- Abu Francis Doubtful
- Mathys Niflore Doubtful
- Alexis Amougou Out
Sion Oppong is back from a calf problem and available; Toulouse's probable XI reportedly has Restes in goal with Tengstedt and Russell-Rowe up front. Some outlets list Francis as out rather than doubtful, so treat his status as uncertain.
- Joaquín Panichelli Out
- Fábio Baldé Out
- Maxi Oyedele Doubtful
- Hermann Malonga Doubtful
- Deivid Washington Doubtful
Head coach Hugo Oliveira said the other players are available after Doukouré, Nanasi and Godo returned; Oyedele, Malonga and Washington statuses come from older preview listings and conflict with that presser.
Allowing for this news: Toulouse 45%, draw 26%, Strasbourg 29% (xG 1.61 – 1.25). This adjustment is being tested in the track record and isn't used in the prediction above yet.
Found by an AI web search. Reports can be wrong or out of date. Sources: sportsmole.co.uk, whoscored.com, insights.betfred.com, alsasports.fr
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Strasbourg
Strasbourg are rated 30 points above Toulouse (1530 to 1500), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Toulouse
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Toulouse's chance of winning and takes the same from Strasbourg's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Toulouse
Expected goals 1.7 to 1.2. Toulouse score 1.3 a match against an average side (9th in Ligue 1); Strasbourg concede 1.3 (9th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Toulouse
Toulouse LDWDW, gained 10 rating points; Strasbourg WLLLL, lost 20 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Bookmakers' view Favours Strasbourg
Bookmakers rate Strasbourg higher than the model does: Toulouse 43% against the model's 47%, Strasbourg 31% against 28%. Prices include team news the model can't see, and over thousands of past matches the market has been the more accurate, so where they differ, lean towards it.
Not in the model -
Past meetings Neutral
Toulouse won 3, drew 2 and lost 3 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
ToulouseStrasbourgToulouse
5/10 over 2.5
12 scored
13 conceded
05/17
08/22
08/29
09/03
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/16
10/25
11/01
Strasbourg
9/10 over 2.5
22 scored
23 conceded
05/17
08/21
08/29
09/06
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/17
10/25
11/01
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Bookmakers give over 2.5 goals 57%.
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 2-1
- 1-0
- 2-0
- 1-2
- 0-1
- 0-0
- 2-2
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Toulouse | Draw | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 27%3.72 | 5%21.32 | 2%56.50 |
| Level | 17%5.86 | 14%6.97 | 11%9.49 |
| Strasbourg | 3%32.36 | 5%18.83 | 16%6.13 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
3Toulouse wins3Strasbourg wins- W Strasbourg vs Toulouse 1-2
- W Toulouse vs Strasbourg 1-0
- L Strasbourg vs Toulouse 2-1
- L Toulouse vs Strasbourg 1-2
- D Toulouse vs Strasbourg 0-0
- L Strasbourg vs Toulouse 2-0
- W Strasbourg vs Toulouse 1-2
- D Toulouse vs Strasbourg 2-2
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Toulouse's side.