Altach
24%
Fair odds 4.26
Sturm Graz
Model pick
50%
Fair odds 2.01
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Altach | Draw | Sturm Graz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 24% | 27% | 50% |
| Elo model | 27% | 27% | 46% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz are rated 131 points above Altach (1431 to 1300), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Altach
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 9 points to Altach's chance of winning and takes the same from Sturm Graz's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Sturm Graz
Expected goals 1.0 to 1.6. Altach score 0.7 a match against an average side (10th in Austrian Bundesliga); Sturm Graz concede 1.5 (4th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Altach DWLWL, barely moved; Sturm Graz LDDWW, barely moved. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Sturm Graz
Altach won 0, drew 2 and lost 9 of the last 11 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
AltachSturm GrazAltach
7/10 over 2.5
11 scored
16 conceded
08/07
08/15
08/22
08/29
09/12
09/19
10/11
10/18
10/23
10/31
Sturm Graz
6/10 over 2.5
16 scored
14 conceded
09/13
09/16
09/20
10/10
10/15
10/18
10/22
10/25
11/01
11/05
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 0-1
- 0-2
- 1-2
- 0-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Altach | Draw | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|---|
| Altach | 21%4.82 | 9%10.76 | 5%18.25 |
| Level | 3%33.11 | 15%6.62 | 21%4.76 |
| Sturm Graz | 0%— | 1%74.63 | 24%4.19 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
0Altach wins9Sturm Graz wins- L Sturm Graz vs Altach 1-0
- L Sturm Graz vs Altach 2-0
- L Altach vs Sturm Graz 0-2
- D Altach vs Sturm Graz 1-1
- L Sturm Graz vs Altach 2-1
- L Sturm Graz vs Altach 1-0
- L Altach vs Sturm Graz 1-2
- D Altach vs Sturm Graz 1-1
- L Sturm Graz vs Altach 4-0
- L Altach vs Sturm Graz 0-1
11 meetings in the data. Results shown from Altach's side.