Inter
Model pick
66%
Fair odds 1.51
Stuttgart
16%
Fair odds 6.36
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Inter | Draw | Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| Elo model | 62% | 24% | 14% |
Why this prediction
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Overall strength Favours Inter
Inter are rated 116 points above Stuttgart (1697 to 1581), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Inter
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Inter's chance of winning and takes the same from Stuttgart's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Inter
Expected goals 2.6 to 1.2. Inter score 1.9 a match against an average side (2nd in Serie A); Stuttgart concede 1.2 (5th best defence in Bundesliga).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Inter
Inter WLWWW, gained 10 rating points; Stuttgart LWLDL, lost 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
InterStuttgartInter
8/10 over 2.5
25 scored
14 conceded
09/14
09/19
10/10
10/13
10/17
10/21
10/25
10/28
10/31
11/03
Stuttgart
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
13 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/23
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-1
- 3-1
- 2-0
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 1-0
- 2-2
- 4-1
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Inter | Draw | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 39%2.59 | 3%30.58 | 1%92.59 |
| Level | 22%4.50 | 9%11.12 | 5%18.66 |
| Stuttgart | 6%17.27 | 5%19.72 | 10%10.46 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
They haven't met in the data.