Schalke 04
23%
Fair odds 4.31
Stuttgart
Model pick
53%
Fair odds 1.87
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Schalke 04 | Draw | Stuttgart | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 23% | 23% | 53% |
| Elo model | 22% | 26% | 52% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Stuttgart
Stuttgart are rated 175 points above Schalke 04 (1581 to 1406), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Schalke 04
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 8 points to Schalke 04's chance of winning and takes the same from Stuttgart's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Stuttgart
Expected goals 1.2 to 1.9. Schalke 04 score 1.0 a match against an average side (18th in Bundesliga); Stuttgart concede 1.2 (5th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Neutral
Schalke 04 LDLLD, lost 16 rating points; Stuttgart LWLDL, lost 13 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
Rating, last 12 months
Schalke 04StuttgartSchalke 04
4/10 over 2.5
5 scored
12 conceded
05/09
05/17
08/30
09/05
09/11
09/20
10/11
10/17
10/24
10/31
Stuttgart
5/10 over 2.5
16 scored
13 conceded
09/09
09/12
09/19
10/10
10/14
10/17
10/20
10/23
10/31
11/03
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 1-1
- 1-2
- 0-2
- 0-1
- 1-3
- 2-1
- 2-2
- 0-3
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Schalke 04 | Draw | Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|---|
| Schalke 04 | 13%7.43 | 5%20.83 | 3%33.56 |
| Level | 8%11.78 | 13%7.83 | 16%6.07 |
| Stuttgart | 2%60.24 | 5%20.53 | 34%2.90 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
1Schalke 04 wins0Stuttgart wins- W Schalke 04 vs Stuttgart 2-1
- D Stuttgart vs Schalke 04 1-1
2 meetings in the data. Results shown from Schalke 04's side.