Palermo
Model pick
67%
Fair odds 1.48
Sudtirol
13%
Fair odds 7.79
Share of the pitch
Who wins
| Palermo | Draw | Sudtirol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goals model | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Elo model | 66% | 22% | 11% |
Why this prediction
-
Overall strength Favours Palermo
Palermo are rated 148 points above Sudtirol (1476 to 1327), built from every result, weighted towards recent ones.
-
Home advantage Favours Palermo
Playing at home is worth about 65 rating points, which adds 7 points to Palermo's chance of winning and takes the same from Sudtirol's.
-
Attack against defence Favours Palermo
Expected goals 2.2 to 0.8. Palermo score 1.2 a match against an average side (1st in Serie B); Sudtirol concede 1.7 (15th best defence).
-
Last 5 matches Favours Palermo
Palermo WDWWW, gained 26 rating points; Sudtirol DLDLD, lost 28 rating points. Already counted in the ratings above.
-
Past meetings Favours Palermo
Palermo won 5, drew 1 and lost 2 of the last 8 meetings in the data. Not used by the model: once current strength is known, old meetings add little.
Not in the model
Rating, last 12 months
PalermoSudtirolPalermo
7/10 over 2.5
24 scored
12 conceded
08/23
08/30
09/07
09/13
09/19
10/10
10/17
10/25
10/28
11/01
Sudtirol
2/10 over 2.5
11 scored
10 conceded
08/22
08/30
09/05
09/12
09/20
10/10
10/18
10/24
10/27
10/31
Bars show total goals in each of the last 10 matches, oldest on the left: the team's goals in its colour, conceded in grey. The dashed line is 2.5 goals.
Total goals
Both teams to score & clean sheets
Most likely scores
- 2-0
- 1-0
- 2-1
- 1-1
- 3-0
- 3-1
- 0-0
- 4-0
Every score
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Half-time result
First-half goals
Half-time / full-time
| Half-time ↓ Full-time → | Palermo | Draw | Sudtirol |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo | 39%2.54 | 3%33.67 | 1%— |
| Level | 24%4.13 | 12%8.69 | 5%20.45 |
| Sudtirol | 4%23.42 | 5%22.12 | 8%13.11 |
Corners
Most corners
Corner totals are hard to call: over 9.5 the model's log loss is 0.685 against 0.693 for a naive guess, across 30,937 past matches. Which side wins more corners is called much better.
Cards
Over 4.5 cards, the model's log loss is 0.653 against 0.682 for a naive guess, across 33,146 past matches. The referee matters a lot and isn't in the model.
5Palermo wins2Sudtirol wins- W Palermo vs Sudtirol 3-0
- W Sudtirol vs Palermo 0-2
- L Palermo vs Sudtirol 1-2
- W Sudtirol vs Palermo 1-3
- W Sudtirol vs Palermo 0-1
- W Palermo vs Sudtirol 2-1
- D Sudtirol vs Palermo 1-1
- L Palermo vs Sudtirol 0-1
8 meetings in the data. Results shown from Palermo's side.